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PABUK Cyclonic Storm-

Thailand, Andaman, Myanmar and Bay of Bengal

Another Winter Phenomenon

The North-Western Pacific Zone and the Tropic of Cancer are still giving birth to Storms despite the Winter Season 2019. The Deep Depression which formed at the dawn of New Year 2019 in South China Sea has intensified and has been named as a PABUK Cyclonic Storm. It has moved towards Thailand. Myanmar, Andaman Islands and Bay of Bengal are also on its track.

India Meteorological Department (IMD), the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) of South Asia, issued its Advisories as mentioned below.

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CILIDA Moderate Tropical Storm

Another Perfect Prediction for

Season 2018-2019 in South Indian Ocean

Traditional, Indigenous, Local Knowledge and Practices (TILK/P) have a tremendous complementary contribution to Science, as far as the Prediction and Forecasting of Natural Calamities are concerned. Such mention has often been made in the last and previous articles on this Website. Mauritius, including Rodrigues Islands are witnessing unprecedented blossoming and production of tropical fruits, mainly Litchis and Mangoes. Such a Natural Phenomenon has traditionally been known and understood by our local folks. No doubt, other parametres like heat, humidity and cloud observations, in addition to Wind direction from the ground and at sea, help in the Prediction of Natural Events. The formation of intensifying KENANGA, in the East of Southern Indian Ocean, is another proof. Refer to the previous article.

The WMO is well-attuned to the application of such ‘Life-Saving-Tools’ and is requested to activate fully and to explore further such priceless resources.

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KENANGA Moderate Tropical Storm and

92 S INVEST another Best Prediction

Made for Indian Ocean

Whole Indian Ocean is under the influence of Dynamic Weather Systems. On one hand, Sri Lanka and the Eastern Territories of India are experiencing the evolution of Cyclonic Storm since 14 December. On the other side, Moderate Tropical Storm KENANGA initially known as “PEACE” is moving in the direction of Mascarene Islands from the Indonesia. Another Zone of another Tropical Depression is taking birth in the Northern Area between Madagascar and the Mauritius, Rodrigues and Reunion Islands.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has signalled all these Weather Systems accurately. Météo-France-Réunion, which is the Regional l Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) has mentioned Cyclogenesis since a few days. Unfortunately, the Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS) seems to be still dormant at such crucial moments.  

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PHETHAI named- (94B INVEST/Deep Depression) in Northern Indian Ocean and evolving since 14 December 2018 is Predicted to intensify and make landfall in two days’ time.

Both the Northern and Southern Indian Ocean, including Western Pacific, are still experiencing Cyclonic Conditions, despite being in the Winter Season. A Deep Depression (Tropical Depression) in the Bay of Bengal is influencing Weather near Shri Lanka and adjoining Eastern Territories of India.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a Press Release at 13.00 hours on Friday 14 December 2018. See below.

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GAJA Cyclonic Storm-Bay of Bengal

Pre-Winter Season 2018

The whole of Indian Ocean is under the rare phenomenon of simultaneous formations of Cyclones. While the Southern Ocean is experiencing a dual Weather System-ALCIDE and BOUCHRA, The Northern Hemisphere has begotten –GAJA Cyclonic Storm in the Bay of Bengal. It is highly likely to evolve into further intensifications within 4-5 days. Moreover, Very Severe Air quality prevailing in India is likely to cause chocking breath for the population.

India Meteorological Department (IMD) issued its Press Release today 11 November 2018 as follows:

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BOUCHRA Mod/Trop/Storm-Weakening & Reviving

2^nd Cyclone for Season 2018-2019

(See updates below)

Mention has been rightly made in previous article regarding ALCIDE, that ‘the formation of a band of Low Pressure in Southern Indian Ocean at the end of October has been a perfect indication for the entrance of an Early Summer Season 2018-2019.’ Also that ‘the presence of 94S INVEST in the North East of Mauritius and also of 93S INVEST East of Diego Garcia prove that the South-West Indian Ocean (SWIO) will likely experience Disastrous Cyclones and Rains this Season.’

The Tropical Disturbance which was evolving at 5.7°South and 88.8°East of Diego Garcia has intensified rapidly. The System has been named by the Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS), at 22.30 hrs on Saturday 10 November 2018, as Moderate Tropical Storm BOUCHRA. This 2^nd Cyclone in the Southern Indian Ocean and which has named within a week-time of ALCIDE, proves that Season 2018-2019 will no doubt beget a Dynamic Period. While Tiny ALCIDE is still struggling and weakening in the North-East of Madagascar, BOUCHRA was almost stationary far 3000 km North-East of Mauritius. As at today, 11 November, it is moving Westwards at 14 km/h.

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94S INVEST-ALCIDE First Cyclone Season 2018-2019

Heralded by Traditional Knowledge and

Ahead of International Scientific Centres

  (Pl, see Update  below)

The formation of a band of Low Pressure in Southern Indian Ocean at the end of October has been a perfect indication for the entrance of an Early Summer Season 2018-2019. Observations of the Atmosphere around the Mauritius, made by applying Traditional, Indigenous and Local Knowledge/Practices (TILK/P) indicated an oncoming Dynamic Cyclonic Season. It is very interesting to note that tropical fruits have been blossoming almost everywhere, especially mangoes and litchis which were very low in production during last year and during precedent seasons. The sky invaded by Alto Cumulus Clouds on 23 October 2018 confirmed the Formation of Cyclone and Rains which are approaching.

The presence of 94S INVEST in the North East of Mauritius and also of 93S INVEST East of Diego Garcia prove that the South-West Indian Ocean (SWIO) will likely experience Disastrous Cyclones and Rains this Season. It is noteworthy to state that the Pacific Ocean has undergone a boisterous season with more than 28 Typhoons this year. So, the paradigm shift is now in the Southern Hemisphere.

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UNISDR-13 October 2018-

Reducing Disaster Economic Losses in Relation to Global GDP by 2030.

The United Nations has proclaimed, in 2009, 13 October as INTERNATIONAL DAY FOR DISASTER REDUCTION. Previously, that is since 1989, the second Wednesday of the month of October was recognized as such. All the countries of the Blue Planet are requested to observe this particular day for the well-being of Mankind. This is expected to be translated in terms of Protection and Security against psychological distress, bodily injury, loss of life, of property, of livelihood, and of a trail of miseries that natural and man-made calamities can potentially cause.

Besides, Disaster Resilience is the ''Wealth of the Nation', in which Food Security is the main Treasure, amongst others. It is also the Pathway towards Sustainable Development and enrichment of the Wealth and of Well-being of Humanity. Yet, miseries are rampant in almost all countries.

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Cyclonic Storm LUBAN-Arabian Sea and Deep Depression-Bay of Bengal

Coincide with the gradual Withdrawal of

South-West Asian Monsoon System 2018

Deadly Severe Cyclonic Storm SAGAR(17-21 May 2018) along the Gulf of Aden and Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm MEKUNU (18-26 May 2018), very rare in the Arabian Sea, have proved that Climate, Weather and Hydrology patterns have altered considerably in North Indian Ocean. The South-West Asian Monsoon System (SWAMS) Onset, officially, started as from Tuesday 29 May 2018 in Kerala, causing Humanitarian Crisis thereafter during 13 to 23 August.

Cyclonic Storm LUBAN in the Arabian Sea was named yesterday Monday 08 October 2018 and Cyclonic Storm TITLI in the Bay of Bengal has been baptised today Tuesday 09 October. The landmass of India, the sub-continent, is sandwiched between these two Weather Systems, coinciding also with the Monsoon Withdrawal which normally takes place by 15 October 2018. All these prove that Natural Disasters are evolving dynamically in the Northern Indian Ocean. India Meteorological Department (IMD), which is also the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC), has issued its Warning as from Monday 08 October 2018.

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International Court of Justice Hague Netherlands

CHAGOS RIGHTS and DECOLONIZATION-

UK Sinking being Unable to 'Rule the Waves'