The 6th Cyclone for Season 2020-2021 for the South Indian Ocean has evolved rather rapidly from a prevailing Low Pressure since a few days. It has been named FARAJI Moderate Tropical Storm by the Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS) at 15.00 hours today Friday 05 February 2021. It is located now at 13.2°S 81.0 °E, 2000 km East North-East of Rodrigues Island and 2550 km East North-East of Mauritius. The Weather System is moving Southwards at a speed of 05 kph.
The MMS has released its bulletin as follows (etd):
[[[Special Weather Bulletin
Fri, Feb 5, 2021
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Weather Outlook updated at 1500 hours on 05 February 2021
General
The tropical depression which was evolving to the South-East of Diego-Garcia continued to intensify and is already a moderate tropical storm. It has been named Faraji by the Mauritius Meteorological Services at 1500hours when it was located near latitude 13.2 degrees S and longitude 80.9 degrees E.
Outlook from weather models.
Most numerical models agree to its movement in a general southerly direction at first and towards the South-east thereafter.
There are still some uncertainties regarding its intensity and track.
Weather at Mauritius and Rodrigues
The system will not directly influence weather over Mauritius and Rodrigues over the next five days.
The system is being closely monitored and this bulletin will be updated tomorrow Saturday 06 February 2021.
05 February 2021
Vacoas.]]]
Uploaded: 21.50 Hours FRIDAY 05 FEBRUARY 2021.
Météo-France-Réunion which is the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) for the South Indian Ocean Basin has published its Advisories. Mentions have been made that there is the possibility of FARAJI MTS to intensify into an Intense Tropical Storm and into a Tropical Cyclone within 3-5 days; also that the System will likely to evolve in the open sea of the Eastern Zone of the South Indian Ocean.
{{{WTIO31 FMEE 050718
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN)
0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 1/10/20202021
1.A DEPRESSION TROPICALE 10
12H: 05/02/2021 18 UTC: 13.1 S / 81.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 155 SO: 285 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 75
24H: 06/02/2021 06 UTC: 13.4 S / 81.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 155 SO: 285 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 75
36H: 06/02/2021 18 UTC: 13.8 S / 82.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 155 SO: 285 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 75
48H: 07/02/2021 06 UTC: 14.1 S / 82.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 155 SO: 285 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 75
60H: 07/02/2021 18 UTC: 14.3 S / 83.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 155 SO: 285 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 120 SO: 130 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SO: 35 NO: 55
72H: 08/02/2021 06 UTC: 14.3 S / 84.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 155 SO: 285 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SO: 140 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SO: 35 NO: 65
2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 09/02/2021 06 UTC: 14.6 S / 86.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SO: 285 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 155 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 65 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 55
120H: 10/02/2021 06 UTC: 15.7 S / 88.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SO: 285 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SO: 175 NO: 75. }}}
The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has also issued its Advisories on 06 February 2021 stating almost the same, in addition to the Sea Surface Temperature being about 290 Celsius in that zone of the Ocean. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 18 FEET.
NB: Météo-France-Réunion has also stated about the likelihood of the formation of another cyclone in the Mozambique Channel in a few days later.
